Manometers Carbon Dioxide Co2 Percentage Digital

Callendar’s theory of global warming and a so called “greenhouse effect” caused by man-made emissions of CO2 were largely ignored until after WW2 when governments, especially the USA government, began a rapid escalation in military spending. Anything taking place in the atmosphere was of interest to the military. Among the factors of interest was infrared absorption. Pursuing this interest, the theoretical Physicist Lewis D Kaplan confirmed that Callendar’s suggestion that CO2 in the upper atmosphere had a more dramatic effect than that occurring lower down.

But it needed complex calculations to establish whether the effect would be significant in terms of global surface temperatures. Fortunately analogue and, later, increasingly powerful digital computers were becoming available making these calculations possible. Another physicist, Gilbert N Plass took up the challenge in 1956 and, like so many of his predecessors working in his spare time, calculated that doubling the volume of CO2 in the atmosphere would lead to a 3ºC to 4ºC increase.

The Spread of Carbon Emissions

Still this was seen as not too serious. At the rate of increase in CO2 then being observed Plass calculated that temperatures would increase by 1.1ºC per century. (Plass, G.N. (1956d). "Carbon Dioxide and the Climate," American Scientist 44: 302-16). And, in any case, there was the generally accepted view that most of the increased CO2 would be absorbed by the oceans.